US dairy exports ending 2021 strong – Progressive Dairy

US dairy exports ending 2021 strong – Progressive Dairy

US dairy exports ending 2021 strong – Progressive Dairy

After a slower October, November strength in foreign sales of milk powders and cheese pushed the U.S. dairy export market toward a strong finish to 2021, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC).
Based on details reported in the most recent U.S. Dairy Exporter Blog:
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The milk powder sales are being spurred on by competitive prices, although the U.S. price advantage with the European Union (EU) and New Zealand has narrowed significantly since September and will affect U.S. performance in 2022, according to USDEC’s Paul Rogers.
In the cheese category, cheddar exports, in particular, are having a resurgence and are on pace to surpass the annual export record set in 2014, according to USDEC’s William Loux. Factors leading to the surge include expanded cheddar production capacity in the U.S. and competitive pricing. Strong global demand and weak production from primary U.S. competitors have also been crucial to accelerated sales. Looking ahead, the picture for cheese exports appears favorable in the new year.
Based on USDA preliminary November milk production estimates and Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) butterfat and nonfat solids test results, Progressive Dairy estimates exports would represent about 17.8% of total solids produced during the month.
Year to date, exports on a total milk solids basis were estimated at 2.14 million MT, up 12% from January-November 2020.
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) updated Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program-assisted sales. Through December, accepted offers on 2021 sales have reached about 53.1 million pounds of American-type cheeses, 16 million pounds of butter, 6.4 million pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 45.1 million pounds of whole milk powder and 12.2 million pounds of cream cheese. These sales are the equivalent of about 1.447 billion pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. The latest report includes revisions from previous reports. CWT estimates are based on contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes.
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Here’s a look at other export trends followed by Progressive Dairy:
Hay exporters continue to struggle with logistical challenges, and those issues showed up in November’s shipments.
Exports of alfalfa hay totaled 231,258 MT, a four-month low. Sales to China totaled 126,972 MT, down about 36,000 MT from October and a seven-month low. Despite the slowdown, January-November 2021 U.S. alfalfa hay exports total nearly 2.64 million MT, the highest volume on record for the first 11 months of the year.
At 106,799 MT, November exports of other hay were on par with the average over the second half of 2021. Shipments to Japan hit a six-month high and represented about 60% of total volume. Shipments to South Korea and the United Arab Emirates were down from October. Year-to-date exports of other hay have now topped 1.28 million MT, up about 40,000 MT compared to January-November 2020 and the largest volume for that period since 2017.
For more on hay exports and market conditions, check out Progressive Forage’s Forage Market Insights update.
A large shipment to Turkey pushed monthly dairy replacement heifer exports above 2,000 head for a third consecutive month. November’s U.S. total was estimated at 2,053 head, with 1,756 moving to Turkey. The remaining heifers were exported to Mexico (173) and Canada (124).
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At 4,148 head, Turkey is now the third-leading market for U.S. dairy replacement heifers in 2021, behind Pakistan (6,111) and Vietnam (5,593).
Year-to-date (YTD) dairy heifer exports total 21,232, the highest number for the January-November period since 2018.
Tony Clayton, Clayton Agri-Marketing Inc., Jefferson City, Missouri, said cattle transportation via truck, ship and airplane remains a challenge, and coastal weather is adding to those challenges. Availability of high numbers of dairy heifers bred to dairy sires is also tight.
Despite that, the outlook for additional dairy heifer exports is strengthening. Potential dairy cattle buyers in Asia and the Middle East are placing a higher demand on sourcing cattle that produce A2 milk.
Clayton said his company has also made its first shipment of Holstein bulls to Bangladesh and confirmed two more orders for dairy cattle to that country in early 2022.
Here’s a summary of other issues about and affecting U.S. dairy and agricultural trade:
Cheesemakers in France or Switzerland had sought designation of Gruyere as a geographical indicator (GIs), preventing U.S. and other companies from using the name. The Consortium for Common Food Names (CCFN), USDEC, NMPF and a coalition of other dairy stakeholders fought to use the name as a generic term without restriction as to where that cheese was produced.

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